8501.0 - Retail Trade, Australia, Oct 2005

ARCHIVED ISSUE Released at 11:30 AM (CANBERRA TIME) 30/11/2005

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Main Features
About this Release

OCTOBER KEY FIGURES

		Oct 05	Sep 05 to Oct 05
		$m	% change

Turnover at current prices
	Trend estimates	17 264.5	0.3
	Seasonally adjusted estimates	17 242.4	0.5

Monthly turnover, Trend estimates - % change
Graph: Monthly turnover, Trend estimate, Percentage change

OCTOBER KEY POINTS

TREND ESTIMATES

The trend estimate of turnover for the Australian Retail and Hospitality/Services series increased by 0.3% in October 2005. This follows a similar increase of 0.3% in each of the two previous months.
In October 2005, the trend estimate increased in all states except Victoria, with the largest increases occurring in Queensland (+0.8%), Tasmania (+0.7%), the Northern Territory and the Australian Capital Territory (both +0.4%).

SEASONALLY ADJUSTED ESTIMATES

The seasonally adjusted estimate of turnover for the Australian Retail and Hospitality/Services series increased by 0.5% in October 2005. This follows a decrease of 0.3% in September and an increase of 0.5% in August 2005. States with an increase in their seasonally adjusted estimate were New South Wales (+0.5%), Queensland (+2.0%), Western Australia (+0.4%) and Tasmania (+1.8%).

ORIGINAL ESTIMATES

In original terms, Australian turnover increased by 3.7% in October 2005 compared with September 2005. Chains and other large retailers (which are completely enumerated) increased by 3.8%, while the estimate for 'smaller' retailers (the sampled units) increased by 3.4%.
Australian turnover increased by 2.0% in October 2005 compared with October 2004. Chains and other large retailers increased by 3.1%, while 'smaller' retailers increased by 0.6%.

NOTES

FORTHCOMING ISSUES

ISSUE	Release Date
November 2005	9 January 2006
December 2005	3 February 2006
January 2006	2 March 2006
February 2006	31 March 2006
March 2006	8 May 2006
April 2006	30 May 2006

CHANGES IN THIS ISSUE

There are no changes in this issue.

SAMPLING ERRORS

Standard errors for the Australian estimates (original data) for October 2005 contained in this publication are:

Data Series	Estimate	Standard error

Level of retail turnover ($m)	17 431.7	123.2
Change from preceding month ($m)	615.3	83.0
% change from preceding month (%)	3.7	0.5

For more information see the Explanatory Notes, paragraphs 32-36.

INQUIRIES

For further information about these and related statistics, contact the National Information and Referral Service on 1300 135 070 or Graham Phillips on Canberra (02) 6252 5625.

INDUSTRY TRENDS

MONTHLY SEASONALLY ADJUSTED AND TREND ESTIMATES

TOTAL RETAIL

There has been weak trend growth for three months. Food retailing, Clothing and soft good retailing and Hospitality and services have had at least four months of moderate growth, while all other industries have had a decline in the trend estimate for two or more months.

FOOD RETAILING

There has been moderate trend growth for four months. New South Wales, Victoria, Queensland, Western Australia and Tasmania have had moderate or strong growth during this period.

DEPARTMENT STORES

There has been a decline in the trend estimate for two months which follows nine months of weak growth or no change. There has been a decline in the trend estimate in New South Wales (six months), Victoria, Western Australia (both two months) and the Australian Capital Territory (three months). Both Queensland and South Australia have had weak growth for two months following periods of moderate growth.

Graph: Industry trends_Department stores

CLOTHING AND SOFT GOOD RETAILING

There have been seven months of moderate growth in the trend. Queensland, South Australia, Tasmania and the Australian Capital Territory have had strong growth for at least four months.

Graph: Industry trends_Clothing and soft good retailing

HOUSEHOLD GOOD RETAILING

There has been a decline in the trend estimate for two months. New South Wales, Victoria and South Australia have had a decline in the trend estimate for at least four months, while Queensland, Tasmania and the Australian Capital Territory have had six months of strong growth.

Graph: Industry trends_Household good retailing

RECREATIONAL GOOD RETAILING

There has been a decline in the trend estimate for six months. New South Wales, Victoria, Queensland, the Northern Territory and the Australian Capital Territory have had a decline in the trend estimate for nine, five, six, six and three months respectively. In contrast, Tasmania has had strong growth for eight months.

Graph: Industry trends_Recreational good retailing

OTHER RETAILING

The trend estimate has been in decline for 12 months. New South Wales (16 months), Victoria (five months) and Western Australia (12 months) have had a decline in the trend estimate.

TOTAL RETAIL (EXCLUDING HOSPITALITY AND SERVICES)

Total retail (excluding Hospitality and services) has had weak growth for five months. Over the last two months, the rate of trend growth for Total retail (excluding Hospitality and services) has been slower than Total industries (including Hospitality and services).

Graph: Industry trends_Total retail (excluding Hospitality and services)

HOSPITALITY AND SERVICES

There has been five months of moderate growth. Queensland and the Northern Territory have had at least four months of strong growth while New South Wales and Victoria had weak growth in October 2005. South Australia and the Australian Capital Territory have had a decline in the trend estimate for three or more months.

Graph: Industry trends_Hospitality and services

STATE TRENDS

MONTHLY SEASONALLY ADJUSTED AND TREND ESTIMATES

NEW SOUTH WALES

There has been weak trend growth for 12 months. There has been a decline in trend estimate for Department stores (six months), Household good retailing (three months), Recreational good retailing (nine months) and Other retailing (over 15 months) while Food retailing has had moderate to strong growth for seven months.

VICTORIA

There was a decline in the trend estimate in October 2005, which follows slowing growth since May. Department stores, Household good retailing, Recreational good retailing and Other retailing have had a decline in the trend estimate for at least two months. Food retailing and Clothing and soft good retailing have had moderate or strong growth in the trend for at least four months.

QUEENSLAND

There have been four months of strong growth in the trend. There has been strong growth in Clothing and soft good retailing (nine months), Household good retailing (six months), Other retailing (two months) and Hospitality and services (ten months). Food retailing has had moderate growth in the trend for eight months, while Recreational good retailing had been in decline for six months.

SOUTH AUSTRALIA

There has been weak trend growth for six months. There has been a decline in the trend estimate in Household good retailing (nine months) and Hospitality and services (three months) while Clothing and soft good retailing has had strong growth for six months.

WESTERN AUSTRALIA

Growth in the trend has been slowing since May 2005, with weak growth in October 2005. Food retailing and Household good retailing have had moderate or strong growth for at least eight months. All other industries had either no change or a decline in the trend estimate in October 2005.

TASMANIA

After three months of strong growth there was moderate growth in the trend in October 2005. All published industries had at least three months of moderate or strong growth, with Clothing and soft good retailing, Household good retailing and Recreational good retailing having had strong growth for ten, six and eight months respectively.